Prophecy Receives a Positive Feasibility Study for the Chandgana Mine-Mouth Power Plant Project in Central Mongolia
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA -- (Marketwire) -- 01/17/12 -- Prophecy Coal Corp. ('Prophecy' or the 'Company') (TSX: PCY)(OTCQX: PRPCF)(FRANKFURT: 1P2) has received a positive feasibility study for the Company's 600 MW Chandgana Mine-Mouth Power Project in Central Mongolia. The Report was independently prepared by Ralf Thomsen, Project Manager at Steag, a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction and operation of highly efficient, thermal power plants for fossil fuels.
The scope of the feasibility study covers technical specification, deployment, and financial analysis of a 4 x 150 MW thermal power plant to be built adjacent to Prophecy's Chandgana Tal coal deposit, which contains 140 million tonnes of measured coal(i). The Power Plant and the coal deposit have respectively already received a construction license and a mining license in 2011.
Engineering, Procurement & Construction Management (EPCM) selection and Project Financing Discussion are underway and expected to be concluded in 2012.
Feasibility Results
Construction and Timeline
Construction is planned to start in April 2013, with the first 150 MW unit being commissioned in Oct 2015, and subsequent units to roll out in April 2016, October 2016, and April 2017. With proper maintenance, the project will have 30 years of commercial operation.
Capital Cost and Structure
Capital cost is projected to be US $744 million for the 150 MW x 4 project, or US $1,240 per kW. This includes the power plant, overhead transmission lines, and administrative costs. It does not include mine development cost. A mine costing study was conducted and completed by Leighton Asia.
The target capital structure is 30% equity, and 70% debt with a 10% annual interest rate and 10-year pay back. It is envisioned that financing will take place at the project level (i.e. via Prophecy's wholly-owned East Energy Development, which holds the construction license)
Coal Price and Electricity Tariff
Coal will be supplied by the Chandgana Tal deposit at a steady rate of 2.7 million tonne per year (0.675 mtpa per 150 MW unit) with an as-received heat-value of 3,350 kcal/kg (14,100 kjoule/kg). The delivered coal price is set at $15.50/t with a 2% semi-annual price increase.
Electricity Tariff is targeted at US $0.06/kWh, with a 2% semi-annual increase.
Operating Costs
The plant's power production cost is US $0.023/kWh (including coal). Capital recovery, including loan principal and interest payments, is estimated to be US $0.025/kWh.
Financial Analysis
Financial analysis based on a 70%-30% debt to equity, generates a post-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 21.9%, and NPV of US $364.7 million. The base case assumes a discount rate of 12%, debt interest rate of 10%, and exchange rate of MNT 1,250/US dollar. The project economics are sensitive to electricity tariffs and coal prices. For example, a $0.005 kWh (8.3%) tariff hike from base case would increase project IRR to 24.8% and NPV to $473.4 million. Tables from the economic sensitivity study are attached.
Change in total
Change in Tariff Change in coal price Investment cost
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Change in
Change in Total
Change in Coal Investment
Tariff price Cost
(in US$/ (in US$/ (in US$/
kWh) IRR NPV ton) IRR NPV Kw) IRR NPV
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
22% 365 22% 365 22% 365
-0.015 13.1% 39.5 -5.0 24.4% 456.6 -300 29.2% 480.3
-0.010 16.0% 147.7 -4.0 23.9% 438.2 -200 26.3% 441.8
-0.005 18.9% 256.2 -3.0 23.4% 419.9 -100 23.9% 403.3
0.000 21.9% 364.7 -2.0 22.9% 401.5 0 21.9% 364.7
0.005 24.8% 473.3 -1.0 22.4% 383.1 100 20.2% 326.2
0.010 27.8% 581.8 0.0 21.9% 364.7 200 18.7% 287.7
0.015 30.7% 690.4 1.0 21.4% 346.4 300 17.4% 249.2
0.025 36.5% 907.5 2.0 20.9% 328.0 400 16.3% 210.7
0.035 42.1% 1,124.6 3.0 20.4% 309.6
0.045 47.4% 1,341.7 4.0 19.9% 291.3
0.055 52.5% 1,558.7 5.0 19.4% 272.9
Environmental Impact
The Chandgana project will adhere to international and Mongolian emission standards, particularly regarding emissions of Particle Matters (PM), NOx, and SO2. The Chandgana power plant expects to emit 50-80% less PM, NOx, and SO2 than current operating power plants in Mongolia.
Conclusion and Opportunity
This fully-licensed power plant project has first-mover advantage to supplying Mongolia much needed electricity, which currently comes from antiquated plants totaling approximately 700 MW. The coal resource is next to a two-lane highway and 150 km from the existing power grid. Once power and the mine are brought online, there is good potential to introduce additional plant units at lower capital costs.
Mongolia is one of the fastest growing countries in the past decade. The enormous Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project, coming on stream in 2013, alone could boost Mongolia's GDP by up to 30%. With the growth and new wealth, Mongolia has the urgency to invest in cleaner, more efficient, and long-term stable domestic power infrastructure.
Mongolia-China relations have warmed in 2011 and we are optimistic that this trend will continue. Prophecy's asset, structure, and networking represent an opportunity to leverage Chinese capital and expertise to generate electricity from Mongolia's vast coal resource. This electricity is to be created and consumed in Mongolia by its citizens.
In the long run (10 years), the volume of coal resource along with the project's proximity to China (approximately 400 km from Chinese border and 1,000 km from Beijing) offers the potential to scale up capacity and export electricity to China.
John Lee, CEO of Prophecy states, 'The Feasibility Study has outlined the robust financial return for the Chandgana power plant based on conservative parameters. Our low-cost coal supply enables future delivery of affordable and stable electricity to both Central and Eastern Mongolia. The opportunity represents a potential long term revenue stream from power plant operation, as well as from coal operation, without coal transportation issues.'
This news release has been reviewed and approved by Christopher M. Kravits, PGeo who is a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101.
Please visit ProphecyCoal.com for additional project information.
(i)Chandgana Tal resource estimate is based on the September 2007 NI 43-101 Chandgana Tal Technical Report authored by Mr. Gardar G. Dahl, Jr., CPG of Behre Dolbear & Company (USA), Inc., who is an independent Qualified Person under NI 43-101.
About Steag
Recently spun off Evonik Industries, Steag is Germany's fifth largest power producer in Germany and operates nine coal-fired power plants. Outside Germany, Steag is contributing to the public power supply in the Philippines, Colombia and Turkey with three coal-fired power plants. The range of services of Steag covers the entire value chain of energy production from fuel to residue. Its core competencies include the planning, financing, construction and operation of highly efficient power plants for fossil fuels. For more information, visit www.steag.com.
About Prophecy Coal
Prophecy Coal Corp. is a Canadian listed company engaged in developing energy projects in Mongolia. The company has over 1.4 billion tonnes of surface minable thermal coal resources on two coal properties in Mongolia. Prophecy Coal's Ulaan Ovoo coal mine is in production and its Chandgana mine mouth power plant has been permitted. Prophecy Coal is the controlling shareholder of Prophecy Platinum Corp (TSX VENTURE: NKL). Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Further information on Prophecy Coal can be found at www.prophecycoal.com
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Prophecy Coal Corp.
John Lee, CEO/Chairman
Forward Looking Statements: This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed 'forward-looking statements'. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, statements regarding future plans and objectives of the companies are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainties. Although Prophecy believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include general economic, regulatory, market or business conditions, and other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the companies with securities regulators. Mineral exploration and development of mines is an inherently risky business. Accordingly the actual events may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on Prophecy and the risks and challenges of its business, investors should review filings that are available at www.sedar.com.
This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities in the United States. The securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended ('the U.S. Securities Act') or any state securities law and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. Persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available.
'Neither the TSX Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.'
Contacts:
Prophecy Coal Corp.
Chris Ackerman
Manager, Investor Relations
1-800-459-5583
cackerman@prophecycoal.com
www.prophecycoal.com
